Now. look back to November when Silver was cresting. The RSI, which is about Momentum within a Trend, was in an extreme position, and tends to stay
"embedded" in that way, until it drops out.
Note that when it drops out is foreshadowed by a move in the MACD.
This current move is a bit more in terms of amplitude, and hence the MACD is more pronounced and extreme, but IMO, it will do a good job of calling your attention to ALERT you when a move is topping in THAT TREND.
IMO, your next question, should be, "How long a trend are we talking about ?" Typically in a DAILY chart using default values of 12, 26 & 9 for the MACD and a 14 day long period for the RSI, I think a Month is a reasonable timeframe of a trend. Does that mean the Silver Upleg expires one month after it starts? NO, imo.
However, I'd say that after an 18 market day upleg with only the most minor of adjustments, this trend COULD
start to de-accelerate, and the MACD will clearly show that. How or how far will it do that ? Typically in strong up-moves, the price can bounce back up from the 20 Day Simple Moving Average which sits at 29.15 USD.
Now if we further expand our buffer zone to consider + or - 5% of that 20DMA line, we can get an upper bounce zone of 30.60 and a lower bounce zone of 28.00. SO, I'd be watching the MACD for signs of softness and then the 20 DMA "Bounce Zone" from 30.60, down to 28.00 to absorb any correction, like a trampoline. Personally I think $28.00 would be such a great buy that I'd re-buy the position all over again, were it to go that low.
Whether we get a correction or not, I have a minimum objective of about $35 for this leg, and perhaps a "HEAD FAKE" style correction, and then a move towards $50. Those are concepts, not promises.
Thats my SIMPLE analysis. In keeping with K.I.S.S, I simply post the results of the more involved analysis.
Meanwhile, good luck.
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